Double-Digit Growth Again for Online Ad Spend

Digital shows resilience around the world

The economy suffered around the world in 2009, but the online advertising market showed its resistance to the recession. While total media spending dropped, online ad spending increased by 2% to $55.2 billion.

eMarketer forecasts that 2010 will bring a return to double-digit online ad growth, with global spending set to reach $61.8 billion. Growth will continue at rates of over 10% each year through 2014.

“By 2014 eMarketer forecasts that figure will leap to $96.8 billion, growing at an 11.9% compound annual rate, despite the slow, uneven and fragile global economic recovery,” said eMarketer’s Jared Jenks, author of the new report “Worldwide Ad Spending.” “These rates will be unmatched by other media.”

Online Advertising Spending Worldwide, 2009-2014 (billions and % change)

North America and Western Europe accounted for nearly three-quarters of the world’s online ad spending in 2009, but those mature online ad markets will post slower growth rates than developing areas in Asia-Pacific, Eastern Europe and Latin America. In terms of dollars, however, the more developed regions will still increase by many billions because of their large established bases and still largely untapped potential of the internet.The internet’s share of total ad spending worldwide will jump from 11.9% in 2009 to 17.2% in 2014. Continued high growth in the online space coupled with a 2009 spending decrease of 10.5% for total media, followed by a slower recovery, will help online get an ever-larger slice of the ad spending pie.

Online Advertising Spending Share of Total Media Advertising Spending Worldwide, 2009 & 2014 (billions and % of total)

“The reasons for this growth in share are clear,” said Jenks. “Online is more measureable, more effective and where people are increasingly spending their time.”

Magna Global: Online Ads To Top $100 Bil By 2015 - Here We Go !

Worldwide online advertising will continue to outpace traditional advertising revenues this year. A new report from IPG's Mediabrands' Magna Global says online advertising will climb 12.4% in 2010 to $61.0 billion. Plus, it will grow 64% from there to over $100 billion in five years. Magna says online advertising will rise by 11.7% in 2011, an average rate of 11.0% through 2015. Overall, worldwide advertising estimates have been pegged at low- to-mid-single-digit gains in 2010. The company estimates that North America will see a 12.3% rise in online advertising to $27.2 billion in 2010, hitting $45.2 billion in 2015. Currently, the report says paid search continues to be one of the strongest components of all online advertising, roughly accounting for half of the $29.8 billion in revenues worldwide. It is pacing tup 16.5% over 2009 results. In North America, Magna estimates paid search to be at $13.1 billion for 2010, a 16.4% gain. All other online advertising -- display, email, video -- will grow more slowly, 8.7% higher, to get to $31.2 billion worldwide. Latin America will continue to be the fastest-growing region, notes Magna -- reaching $3.5 billion of total supplier advertising revenue in 2015, on an average rate of 13.3% growth over the next five years. The biggest specific markets -- China and Russia -- will experience the greatest gains.

Online Ads Show Signs of Pickup

Signs of life are returning to the Internet-ad business after the harshest year since 2002, with a new report on Wednesday showing that U.S. online-ad spending started to pick up again during the second half of 2009.

U.S. online-ad spending reached $6.3 billion during the fourth quarter of 2009—the largest quarter on record for Internet advertising, according to a report released by PricewaterhouseCoopers and the Interactive Advertising Bureau, a trade group of media and technology companies. Spending during the fourth quarter increased 2.6% from the same period in 2008.

"The worst of the economic impact on Internet advertising is over and the seeds of growth have been planted," said David Silverman, partner at PricewaterhouseCoopers.

Fourth-quarter growth in 2009 capped a bleak year in the digital-media business, where total online-ad spending dropped 3.4% to $22.7 billion, according to the report. That yearly decline marked the first drop in the online-ad market since 2002, when online-ad spending fell 16% following the burst of the dot-com bubble.

Some online-ad formats fared better than others. Search remains the largest online-ad format and continues to take share of the U.S. online-ad market, making up 47 % of 2009 ad revenue, up from 45% in 2008. Search-ad spending increased 1% in 2009 to $10.7 billion compared with 2008.

Spending on display ads, the graphical ads that border Web sites, increased 4% to $8 billion in 2009. Spending on online video grew 38% in 2009 to $1 billion.

But some ad formats experienced sharp declines. Ad spending on classifieds dropped 29% in 2009 to $2.3 billion. Ad spending on lead generation dropped 14% to $1.5 billion, and email-ad revenue dropped 28% to $292 million.

Compared with the broader media business, the Internet escaped the economic downturn relatively unscathed. Total ad spending declined 12.3% in 2009 to $125.3 billion compared to 2008,, according to WPP's ad-tracker Kantar Media.

Several forecasters predict that online ad spending will experience double-digit growth this year and continue to take share from traditional media, like print and TV. Online ad spending will grow 5.5% this year to $23.6 billion, according to research firm eMarketer.

While online advertising is a growing piece of the total advertising business, several impediments remain before the amount of dollars marketers spend online matches the amount of time consumers spend on the Internet, industry experts say. Internet advertising lacks strong measurement standards and remains too complicated to buy, says Terence Kawaja, managing director of investment bank GCA Savvian Advisors. "What is needed in the interactive industry is some revolutionary thinking," Mr. Kawaja says.

Search Marketing to Grow

50% of respondents on the client side said they expect their own company to spend more on paid search this year


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Search-engine marketing continues to grow, according to a survey released this month by the Search Engine Marketing Professional Organization (SEMPO) and Econsultancy, with money often being shifted from other kinds of marketing in order to fund it. But the survey's respondents (professionals in this field) say measurement of return on investment continues to be the foremost challenge for search.

Conducted online in January and February, the survey was promoted to members of SEMPO and of Econsultancy, the latter a digital publishing and training group with a broad membership among Internet professionals. Nearly 1,500 respondents participated, of whom about two-thirds were on the supplier side, including various sorts of agencies (digital shops, search specialists, general agencies, etc.) and consultancies.

Fifty percent of respondents on the client side said they expect their own company to spend more on paid search this year than last. On average, these respondents foresee their companies' spending on paid search increasing 37 percent this year. As for search-engine optimization (SEO), 52 percent of client respondents expect their companies to boost spending, with expenditures seen rising an average of 43 percent vs. 2009. The report of the findings estimates that revenues for the search-engine-marketing industry as a whole will grow 14 percent this year, to $16.6 billion.

With many small firms providing search services of one sort or another, the amount of billings each of them takes in can be pretty small. In paid search, 41 percent of agency/consultancy respondents expect their own firm's billings to be under $100,000 this year. In SEO, 47 percent expect billings this year under that threshold.

IN-HOUSE VS. OUT-OF-HOUSE
Moreover, client companies handle much of their search efforts on their own. In paid search, for example, 47 percent of client-side respondents said they "primarily" handle the work in-house. Fourteen percent use a "paid-search specialist," 14 percent a "search agency," 8 percent a "digital marketing agency," 6 percent an "advertising agency," 5 percent an "SEO specialist," 3 percent a Web-design agency," 1 percent a "PR agency," 1 percent a "social-media specialist" and 1 percent "other." The pattern was similar with respect to SEO work, with 51 percent of client-side respondents saying this is handled primarily in-house. Just 2 percent said their SEO work is primarily handled by the general category of "advertising agency."

Does the fact that general agencies conduct so little of client respondents' search work mean search is at risk of being isolated from (rather than closely coordinated with) a company's overall marketing program? "Hopefully, all of a client's agencies are talking together," says Sara Holoubek, president of SEMPO and CEO of her own strategic consultancy, Luminary Labs. "Obviously, the marketing works better if they all play nicely in the sandbox together." She acknowledges, though, that this is not always the reality.

And why do the general agencies cede much of the search work to specialized agencies and consultancies? Holoubek sees this as a legacy of the period in which big agencies and holding companies treated search "as an afterthought. That's why you see such a diverse collection of companies on the supply side," even though the big agencies have more recently taken steps to get up to speed (or to buy specialist shops) in this field. For that matter, she says, "Some clients may want a very, very specialized, dedicated provider" when it comes to conducting their search efforts.

WHERE DOES THE MONEY COME FROM?
In this period of severely constrained budgets, where are clients finding the money to fund their search efforts? In paid search, 30 percent of client respondents said it's "newly allocated budget specifically for paid search," while 25 percent said it's "money shifted away from other marketing budgets" and 45 percent that it's a combination of the two. For SEO, 39 percent said it's new money, 19 percent said it's money shifted from other marketing budgets, 9 percent said it's "money shifted from other Web site programs" and 33 percent said it's a combination of these.

When money is shifted into search from elsewhere in the marketing budget, what takes the hit? A plurality of client respondents (49 percent) and an outright majority of those on the agency/consultancy side (69 percent) pointed to print. It's not that search is inherently a predator vis-à-vis spending in traditional media. At the moment, though, with budgets often shrinking, it seems like a zero-sum game. "I think if it weren't for the recession, we wouldn't be talking about where the money is coming from," says Holoubek, especially since these old and new media ought to be working in concert. "In an ideal world, you have this virtuous circle in which media like TV and print create demand, and search captures it," she says.

Wherever the money comes from, its allocation to search had better pay off. But determining whether it is doing so remains a challenge for search, just as it is for any other form of marketing. When respondents were asked to identify the "greatest challenges" they confront in managing their paid search efforts, "measuring the ROI" garnered the most mentions from people on the client side (43 percent) and the agency/consultancy side (40 percent). The runner-up in each case was "optimizing destination pages." Measurement of ROI also was atop the list (in a tie with "optimizing destination pages," at 42 percent each) when client-side respondents were asked to cite the biggest challenges they face in running their SEO efforts. On the agency/consultancy side, measuring ROI tied (at 40 percent apiece) with "staying abreast of search engines' indexing algorithms and technologies."

DEFINING THE OBJECTIVES
Of course, measuring return on investment entails knowing just what it is you want that investment to accomplish. What do companies want from their SEO efforts? For client-side respondents, the highest number of mentions as "most important" went to "generate leads" (34 percent) and "drive traffic to Web site" (32 percent). That's in sync with agency/consultancy respondents' sense of what their clients want to accomplish, with "generate leads" (35 percent) and "drive traffic to Web site" (30 percent) getting the most mentions. With regard to the objectives of paid-search efforts, client-side respondents gave the most votes to "sell products, services or content directly online" (39 percent) and to "generate leads" (37 percent). Here again, that's consistent with what agency/consultancy respondents said, with "sell products, services or content directly online" cited by 43 percent and "generate leads" by 40 percent.
 
With social media drawing more and more attention from marketers, the survey sought to gauge opinion of search professionals on how this might be affecting their work. On the client side, 33 percent of respondents agreed that "Social media is very much part of our search activity." Significantly more of the agency/consultancy respondents (48 percent) agreed that this is the case. Likewise, agency/consultancy respondents were more likely than their client-side counterparts to agree that the rise of social media has had an impact on their search efforts, 74 percent vs. 52 percent.