The Web Passes Newspapers in Ad Spending For First Time ! YES!

Advertisers will spend more on internet ads in 2010 than newspaper ads for the first time, according to new estimates by eMarketer.

Online ad spending will grow 13.9% to $25.8 billion for the full year in 2010, while advertisers are expected to spend just $22.78 billion on print newspaper ads this year, down 8.2% from 2009, eMarketer estimates.

Total newspaper ad revenues from print and online ads are expected to hit $25.7 billion this year, still shy of the $25.8 billion advertisers will spend on internet ads. “Marketers are devoting bigger shares of their budgets to digital media as they see more customers shifting time toward the web,” said Geoff Ramsey, CEO of eMarketer. “It’s something we’ve seen coming for a long time, but this is a tipping point.”

Increased consumer use of the Web isn’t the only reason marketers are putting more dollars online, he added.

“The bad economy has actually accelerated the shift to digital advertising,” Mr. Ramsey said. “Online ads˜especially search ads˜are increasingly seen by many marketers as a more reliable bet than print ads, which are are often difficult to tie to a measurable financial result.” While total ad spending in the US is expected to bounce back for the full year, growing 3% in 2010 to $168.5 billion, newspaper spending is expected to continue its decline next year. eMarketer estimates that print newspaper ad spending will slide to $21.4 billion in 2011, down 6% from 2010. On the other hand, online ad spending is expected to grow 10.5% in 2011 to reach $28.5 billion. eMarketer benchmarks its US newspaper ad spending projections against data from the Newspaper Association of America (NAA), for which the last full year measured was 2009.

Double-Digit Growth Again for Online Ad Spend

Digital shows resilience around the world

The economy suffered around the world in 2009, but the online advertising market showed its resistance to the recession. While total media spending dropped, online ad spending increased by 2% to $55.2 billion.

eMarketer forecasts that 2010 will bring a return to double-digit online ad growth, with global spending set to reach $61.8 billion. Growth will continue at rates of over 10% each year through 2014.

“By 2014 eMarketer forecasts that figure will leap to $96.8 billion, growing at an 11.9% compound annual rate, despite the slow, uneven and fragile global economic recovery,” said eMarketer’s Jared Jenks, author of the new report “Worldwide Ad Spending.” “These rates will be unmatched by other media.”

Online Advertising Spending Worldwide, 2009-2014 (billions and % change)

North America and Western Europe accounted for nearly three-quarters of the world’s online ad spending in 2009, but those mature online ad markets will post slower growth rates than developing areas in Asia-Pacific, Eastern Europe and Latin America. In terms of dollars, however, the more developed regions will still increase by many billions because of their large established bases and still largely untapped potential of the internet.The internet’s share of total ad spending worldwide will jump from 11.9% in 2009 to 17.2% in 2014. Continued high growth in the online space coupled with a 2009 spending decrease of 10.5% for total media, followed by a slower recovery, will help online get an ever-larger slice of the ad spending pie.

Online Advertising Spending Share of Total Media Advertising Spending Worldwide, 2009 & 2014 (billions and % of total)

“The reasons for this growth in share are clear,” said Jenks. “Online is more measureable, more effective and where people are increasingly spending their time.”

Social Gaming Rakes In Revenue-Gaming market to reach $2.18 bil. by 2012

Thanks to the massive popularity of Facebook and the addictive appeal of real-time simulation games, gaming on social networks has gained widespread adoption.

According to a BlogHer/iVillage study, about 22 percent of adult U.S. Internet users played casual games daily in March 2010. A study from ThinkEquity estimated that 79 million people will play social games in the U.S. in 2012, up from 47 million in 2009. As the social gaming audience continues to grow, so will revenue from direct and indirect payments and advertising, resulting in more than $720 million, according to ThinkEquity. By 2012, the market is expected to reach $2.18 billion.

U.S. direct-paying users are expected to generate $1.19 billion in revenue by 2012, up from $340 million in 2009. Indirect-paying users -- defined as those who opt-in to advertising offers attached to social games -- will inject $868 million into the industry in 2012, up from $324 million in 2009. Social game advertising revenue will double to $124 million in 2012. "Social gaming represents opportunity for marketers," said Paul Verna, a senior analyst at eMarketer. "In the coming months, expect to see more marketers muscling into the social gaming space through brand marketing tactics such as display ads, video ads, custom games, in-game enhancements, product placements and sponsorships."

Online Video Viewing Shifts to Long-Form Content - Full-length TV and movies get a boost

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The number of US online video viewers has risen steadily for the past few years and is expected to continue climbing in moderate increments through 2014.

eMarketer estimates that growth will slow from between 8% and 9% a year from 2010 through 2012 to about 5.2% in 2014, when 77% of US Internet users will be watching online video content at least monthly.

US Online Video Viewers, 2008-2014 (millions and % of Internet users)

Growth in online video viewership was increasing more quickly between 2008 and 2009, by 11.3%. At the same time, streaming and downloading of full-length movies increased much more dramatically. According to Ipsos OTX, the percentage of Web users who watched this kind of long-form online video more than doubled between September 2008 and Oct 2009.

US Internet Users Who Have Streamed or Downloaded a Full-Length Movie, 2008 & 2009 (% of respondents)

Such rapid increases in downloading and streaming mean full-length movie—and, by likely extension, TV—content is on a faster growth track than online video viewing as a whole.

One factor behind the turn toward long-form content is the success of Hulu, which The Nielsen Company ranked second to YouTube in overall video streams viewed in April 2010. In addition, the increase in Internet-enabled TV sets and other viewing devices supports the trend. In-Stat expects US shipments of Web-enabled devices that support TV applications to increase from 14.6 million this year to 83.4 million by 2014.

The demographics of online video viewing also help to explain why Internet users have gone beyond snack-size clips to adopt full-length TV and movie viewing on the Web. eMarketer estimates the highest penetration of online video viewing is among 18- to 24-year-olds, with 25- to 34-year-olds and teens not far behind. By the middle of this decade, those age groups will be at saturation points of above 90% penetration.

US Online Video Viewers, by Age, 2008-2014 (% of Internet users in each group)

Not only do these demographics watch online video in massive numbers, but they are also the most receptive to TV content online. Retrevo found that 29% of under-25s get all or most of their TV online, compared with 8% of the video viewing population as a whole. As these viewers grow older, they’ll be used to consuming TV content online, and they’ll be helped by a new generation of devices that makes this transition much easier than it’s been to date.

“If the first iteration of online video was about silly pet tricks on YouTube, the next wave will be about professionally produced full-length content such as TV shows, movies and live sports,” said Paul Verna, eMarketer senior analyst. “This shift will be propelled by a combination of technology integration, demographics and a growing comfort level with the idea of watching video hosted on Websites.”

How Consumers Interact with Brands on Social Networks

Consumers do want relationships

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The social networking audience in the US has reached critical mass. eMarketer estimates that 57.5% of all US Internet users, or 127 million people, will use a social network at least once a month in 2010. By 2014, nearly two-thirds of Internet users will be on board.

Marketers have been chasing this audience for several years, but the question remains: Do consumers notice, or care?

“Those who still think that social network users are too busy engaging with friends to notice marketers must change their viewpoint,” said Debra Aho Williamson, eMarketer senior analyst and author of the new report “Brand Interactions on Social Networks.” “Brand interactions are real, valuable and growing. “

According to a February 2010 survey by Chadwick Martin Bailey, a market research firm, 33% of Facebook users have become fans of brands on the network.

US Facebook Users Who Are Fans of Brands on Facebook, February 2010 (% of respondents)

Another survey, by Edison Research, found that 16% of social network users had friended brands there. And half (51%) had done so on Twitter.

Coupons remain a leading driver of brand interactions in social networks. Learning about sales and new products is also a strong motivator for people to interact with companies in social media. Beyond the tangibles, such as coupons, consumers do gain positive feelings about a brand as a result of their interactions.

Still, social networks are not seen as primary research sources when consumers are looking to buy. Although people are very inclined to take advice from friends and family about products they are interested in, they are not nearly as likely to seek out their social network friends when they are researching online.

According to a study by PowerReviews and the e-tailing group, only 3% of online buyers said they sought recommendations from social network friends first, compared with 57% who started with search engines.

Sources Used to Begin a Search for Information on Branded Products* According to US Online Buyers**, March 2010 (% of respondents)

“More than half of all Internet users now use social networks, and the percentage of social network users who talk about companies, either in organic conversations or on branded company pages, is growing,” said Ms. Williamson. “Consumers do pay attention and they do value positive interactions with companies.

“But while people trust their friends for advice and use social networks as part of their research process, social networks are long way from replacing search, if they ever will, as a source of information leading to a purchase.”