The value of emerging markets

By now, it’s common knowledge that much of the world’s economic growth—and therefore the creation of new value—will take place in emerging markets. But that was hardly clear to most people back in 2000, when a McKinsey Quarterly article began, “As the economies of the world globalize and capital becomes more mobile, valuation is gaining importance in emerging markets—for privatization, joint ventures, mergers and acquisitions, restructuring, and just for the basic task of running businesses to create value.” Read “Valuation in emerging markets,” an article that’s even more relevant now than it was when we published it, more than a decade ago.

via : http://www.mckinseyquarterly.com/

The Emerging Online Giants

Internet investment's new champions

DST, Naspers and Tencent have made promising internet investments in many emerging markets. Now even Western internet financiers are emulating them

THEY may not have the name recognition of a Google or a Yahoo!, but they can claim to belong in the same league. The websites of Digital Sky Technologies (DST) account for more than 70% of page-views on the Russian-language internet. Naspers is Africa’s biggest media group, both offline and online. And Tencent is China’s largest internet company by market capitalisation—and the third-largest in the world.

Now these firms are increasingly making their presence felt beyond their home markets. Between them they have invested in dozens of internet firms around the globe. The most adventurous of the three, DST, has already moved west—and paid top dollar for stakes in fast-growing American companies, notably Facebook, the world’s biggest social network.

At first glance the three firms could not look more different. DST was created in 2005 when two Russian internet investors, Yuri Milner and Gregory Finger, pooled their interests in mail.ru, a Russian web portal. Today the firm controls many of the country’s leading websites and boasts an interesting mix of owners, including Goldman Sachs and Alisher Usmanov, a Russian billionaire, who holds 27%.

Based in Cape Town, Naspers is nearly 100 years old and is the publisher of the Daily Sun, South Africa’s biggest newspaper. But it is one of the most ambitious old-media companies anywhere in its move online. It still makes most of its sales—28 billion rand ($3.6 billion) in the year to March—from print and pay-television, but it uses the cash to buy online firms.

Tencent hails from Shenzhen, near Hong Kong. Founded in 1998, it had revenues of $1.8 billion in 2009. Although best known for QQ, a popular instant-messaging service with 567m users, much of its profits come from online games and a virtual currency, called Q coins. Users purchase this with real money and use it to buy digital wares, such as virtual weapons to increase the powers of their avatars.

Despite their differences, the three firms can be seen as a block. For one thing, they are financially intertwined. Naspers owns part of mail.ru and was an early investor in Tencent, of which it now holds 35%. In April Tencent invested $300m in DST, giving it a stake of more than 10% and DST a valuation of about $3 billion. Tencent also has an interest in the Indian arm of MIH, Naspers’s internet division.

What is more, the firms are on the same mission: finding promising internet companies in countries where Western investors rarely dare to go. DST’s territories are Russia and its neighbours, most of which are home to one of its collection of companies; these include social networks such as VKontakte.ru and Nasza-Klasa.pl. Naspers has the largest portfolio of internet firms in developing countries, for instance in Brazil (BuscaPé, a comparison-shopping site), India (ibibo, a social network) and at home in South Africa (24.com, a portal). Tencent has so far been the most cautious of the three. Besides its recent investment in DST it has some minority stakes in games companies, such as VinaGame in Vietnam.

This international presence allows the firms to apply lessons they have learned in one country to another. “We spend an enormous amount of time on sharing knowledge,” says Antoine Roux, the boss of MIH. For its part, DST knows which web businesses work and how much room for growth they still have, given a country’s GDP and internet penetration. Alexander Tamas, a partner at DST, calls this “geographical arbitrage”.

In Russia DST has seen how quickly social networks can grow: latecomers to the internet, many Russians skipped e-mail and went right to social networks to communicate online. With advertising roubles in short supply, DST’s companies also experimented early with other ways of making money from social networks and online games, such as charging for services and selling virtual goods. In December it merged mail.ru with Astrum Online, a gaming firm—in effect forming a Russian Tencent. Free communication tools such as instant messaging create the audience that then pays for other services and virtual goods, Mr Tamas explains.


Tomorrow, the world

It was only a question of time before one of the three firms tried to apply these emerging-market lessons in the West. DST has been the pioneer, for several reasons. Its partners learned their trade in America. It intends to go public one day. And it saw an opportunity: after the financial crisis, conventional investors were cautious and did not fully realise how fast social networks, for instance, would grow.

One further factor was essential in helping DST to gatecrash the party of the handful of private-equity funds, such as Elevation Partners, TCV and Silver Lake Partners, which typically provide successful American internet firms with additional cash. DST’s corporate structure allows it to act quickly, and to make offers that are hard to refuse. In the case of Facebook, it agreed to what at the time seemed a high valuation, waived any right to special treatment should things go wrong and was willing to buy stock from employees. That is especially popular with young internet firms. It allows founders and key employees to make money without having to sell the company or go public prematurely. “This is an IPO substitute,” explains Mr Milner, adding that DST’s investments give firms more time to focus on their product rather than thinking about a flotation.

Will DST’s strategy work? Buying into Facebook certainly looks like a smart move. DST has spent an estimated $800m for a stake of about 10%. When Elevation Partners recently invested $120m in Facebook, that deal put the company’s value at $23 billion, implying that DST’s investment has almost trebled.

In contrast, analysts say, DST may have overpaid for Zynga, the world’s largest online-gaming service, and for Groupon, a website that aggregates buyers and gets them special deals. Yet sceptics may again underestimate how quickly both can grow and what Zynga, for instance, is worth in combination with Facebook: taken together they look much like Tencent. In May, after lengthy negotiations, both firms agreed that Facebook Credits, the social network’s currency, would be accepted in Zynga’s games.

A bigger problem for DST may be that some see it as Russian—and thus “murky”. To counter this the firm has gone to great lengths to be open, inviting executives from firms in which it wanted to invest to Moscow to look at its books. The success of this strategy is demonstrated by the quality of its recent deals and its co-investors, which include such noted venture-capital firms as Accel Partners and Andreessen Horowitz. Even so, DST’s national origin could still matter as the firm makes further investments. Authorities in Washington, dc, are reportedly worried about DST’s latest acquisition: ICQ, an instant-messaging service previously owned by AOL.

However DST fares, it seems to attract copycats. Before Elevation Partners invested in Facebook, it had already cut what is now called a “DST deal” with Yelp, a fast-growing user-review site for local businesses. And although Naspers does not intend to make any investments in Western countries, Tencent may follow DST in doing so. Martin Lau, Tencent’s president, recently said it would step up its forays abroad—which has led to talk that it may be interested in buying Yahoo!.

Conversely, the apparent success of the three emerging-market internet pioneers may prompt Western venture firms to take more interest in developing countries. Tiger Global Management, a New York hedge fund that is also a shareholder in DST, has already specialised in investing in start-ups beyond the West’s well-known technology clusters. Clearly, internet investing is going global and the West is losing its monopoly, not just in thinking up clever ideas for web businesses but in financing them.

via : The Economist - http://www.economist.com/node/16539424

Twitter Reach Per Country- Brazil Leads !

On an absolute basis, Twitter gets more visitors in the United States than anywhere else in the world. But if you handicap it by the amount of people on the web in each country, the United States isn't the biggest, says comScore. Below is Twitter's reach by country. This represents the amount of unique visitors to Twitter.com as a percentage of the countries overall users.

As you can see, Brazil is number one. The U.S. is twelve.

chart of the day, twitter's reach by country, aug 2010

Hello America - China's economy overtakes Japan's in real terms

CHINA has become the world's second biggest economy according to data released on Monday August 16th. Japan's economy fell behind China's at market exchange rates in the second quarter (it has been number three in PPP terms for some time). These numbers are not strictly comparable: Japan's data have been seasonally adjusted while those for China have not. Quibbles aside, Japan will surely be eclipsed soon, if it has not been already. Data compiled by Angus Maddison, an economist who died earlier this year, suggest that China and India were the biggest economies in the world for almost all of the past 2000 years. Why they fell so far behind may be more of a mystery than why they are currently flourishing.

More Daily charts

Brazil World Cup, Olympics Fueling Digital Agency Investment

Publicis' acquisition of digital agency AG2 is the latest in a string of investments from major ad holding companies seeing promise in the market.

Publicis Groupe has extended its reach into South America with the acquisition of major Brazilian digital agency AG2 for an undisclosed sum. The purchase follows a string of digital investments in the country in the past six months, including those from global ad holding companies WPP and Interpublic Group. In May WPP Group acquired two Brazilian digital agencies, Midia Digital and I-Cherry, for undisclosed sums. Midia Digital, based in Sao Paolo with 91 employees, offers services including Web development and creative development for clients including HSBC and Johnson & Johnson. I-Cherry, meanwhile, is a 34-person search agency based in the city of Curitiba with Match.com and Hotels.com among its clients. In March, Interpublic Group also acquired Brazilian digital agency Cubocc in an effort to bolster its social and mobile expertise in Latin America. Its clients to date include Google and Doritos. Roxana Strohmenger, a Forrester analyst following the interactive marketing space in the Latin American market, pointed to the 2014 Soccer World Cup and the 2016 Olympics as two incentives for marketing services companies in Brazil. With two major sporting events taking place in such quick succession, global advertisers will likely seek to integrate their brands with both, presenting an opportunity for ad companies with an established presence in the market. "With preparations and ramp up to [the events]... the amount of ad spend in the Brazilian market will increase significantly," Strohmenger predicted.

In addition, she suggested Brazil's relatively limited exposure to the financial turmoil that swept through the U.S. and Europe in 2009 makes investments there a safer bet than in other markets. "As the world’s 9th largest economy and one of the fastest to emerge from the global recession, Brazil is one of the hot markets right now," she said, adding, "With gross domestic product forecasted to rise at about 4 percent to 5 percent per year over the next 10 years, it really isn’t a surprise that companies are focusing a lot of their attention on Brazil." Coupled with those factors, however, the growth of the overall online audience in Brazil is also an attractive prospect for any digital firm. According to data from comScore, 36.3 million unique users aged 15 and over accessed the internet from home and work locations in June 2010, representing a 19 percent year-over-year increase compared with the 30.5 million that did so in June 2009. However, comScore says the total Brazilian online population, including users accessing the internet from public computers such as those at cafes and universities, is over 73 million. That data suggests users are likely to spend more time online as they continue to gain more convenient access at home or at work.

Strohmenger also placed emphasis on the prevalence of social media among Brazilian users, describing them as "voracious consumers" of such services, including Facebook and local market leader Orkut. She suggested users are more accepting, and even expectant of brands on such services, presenting different challenges and opportunities to markets such as the U.S. "As long as advertisers build campaigns that are interactive and rewarding for their online target audience, social media will be a critical and successful channel," she said, implying further opportunities for agencies to help brands do exactly that. In further recognition of the Brazilian market's promise, comScore itself enhanced its reporting capabilities there at the end of June, adding more detailed geographic information to its repertoire. Commenting on the rollout, Alex Banks, comScore's managing director for Brazil and VP for Latin America said the enhancements were necessary to serve clients in a "fast-growing, active market." Publicis said its AG2 investment was indicative of its strategy to invest in high-growth markets, and citing numbers from its ZenithOptimedia media buying unit, suggested online spending in Brazil grew by at least 40 percent, year-over-year, between 2004 and 2008, with the market "poised to recover rapidly" following the financial turmoil of 2009.

The AG2 purchase brings Publicis Groupe's total number of employees in Brazil to almost 750, with a local presence through its Vivaki and Saatchi & Saatchi brands, among others. AG2's 170 staff offer competitive intelligence and brand management services, and build digital experiences around those offerings. With offices in Porto Alegre, São Paulo and Pelotas, clients have included General Motors and Bradesco, a major Brazilian bank. Following the acquisition, the agency will be rebranded AG2 Publicis Modem, aligning it with the company's other digital properties in the Modem arm of its business. AG2 CEO Cesar Parz will continue to head up the agency, reporting into Publicis Brazil CEO Orlando Marques.

Latin America – A Story of Growth

Earlier this week Alejandro Fosk, senior vice president of comScore Latin America, presented the State of the Internet in Latin America, which provided a look at recent region and market trends in this dynamic and growing part of the world. Although the webinar was presented in Spanish, we wanted to offer those of you who don’t speak the language an opportunity to download the presentation in English as well as Spanish. We also wanted to provide a brief summary of some of the highlights of the data in this blog post.

In April 2010, Latin America accounted for 8 percent of the total global online population. Although this represents a relatively small portion of the world’s online audience, Latin America was the fastest-growing region during the past year – climbing 22 percent from April 2009 – as an increase in broadband penetration helped drive more people online. Latin Americans also displayed strong online engagement, averaging 27 hours online during April, consuming more than 2,000 pages of content and frequenting the Internet an average of 52 times during the month. Latin Americans’ reported the highest search intensity out of the five global regions, with an average searcher performing 141 queries a month.

Average Latin American Internet User Monthly Usage Snapshot

A look across the individual markets in the region that comScore currently reports revealed that all markets experienced a double-digit online population increase during the past year. Brazil, the region’s largest market, grew 19 percent to reach 35.3 million users, while Mexico experienced a 20-percent increase to 15.7 million users. Colombia witnessed the strongest growth with its audience surging 37 percent to reach 10.8 million people, while Argentina climbed 22 percent to 12.7 million users.

Growth of Internet Audience by Market

From Mexico to Chile, we expect Internet usage in the region to continue to grow for the foreseeable future, presenting local and global brands with the opportunity to reach and engage these active, online audiences. Stay tuned for more insights into Latin America throughout the coming months as comScore continues to provide insights into digital media consumption across the globe.